The global copper market is expected to experience a structural supply deficit in 2026, as refined production struggles to keep pace with rising demand. While the “70% supply coverage” benchmark is not commonly used in current analyses, shortfalls are typically expressed in absolute terms, ranging from 150,000 to 330,000 metric tons(Copper Outlook 2026: Institutional Rotation, Supply Deficits, Technical Analysis | Investing.Com, n.d.).
Mine production growth has slowed to just 1.4–2.3% per year, constrained by disruptions in major producing regions such as Chile, Indonesia, and the Congo, falling ore grades, and years of underinvestment in new projects that require 7–10 years to reach production. Refined copper output is lagging even more, growing at less than 1% annually, held back by concentrate shortages despite recent recycling initiatives and plant expansions in Peru and Zambia(Slower Production Growth Will Push Copper Market to Deficit in 2026, Says ICSG | Reuters, n.d.).
Global copper consumption is expected to grow 2.1% in 2026, reaching 28.7 million tons, fueled primarily by the energy transition—grids, EVs, and renewable projects—which account for over 60% of demand growth, alongside data centers and AI infrastructure. China remains the largest consumer at 58% of total demand, while the US and Europe are steadily increasing their share. This surge flips the market from 2025 surpluses of 209,000–500,000 tons into a refined copper deficit, tightening inventories on exchanges such as the LME(Copper To Become the Global Economy’s Most Critical Asset in 2026 – Article | Crux Investor, n.d.).
Reference:
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Copper Outlook 2026: Institutional Rotation, Supply Deficits, Technical Analysis | Investing.com. (n.d.). Retrieved February 24, 2026, from https://www.investing.com/analysis/copper-outlook-2026-institutional-rotation-supply-deficits-technical-analysis-200673451
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Copper To Become the Global Economy’s Most Critical Asset in 2026—Article | Crux Investor. (n.d.). Retrieved February 24, 2026, from https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/copper-to-become-the-global-economys-most-critical-asset-in-2026
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Slower production growth will push copper market to deficit in 2026, says ICSG | Reuters. (n.d.). Retrieved February 24, 2026, from https://www.reuters.com/business/slower-production-growth-will-push-copper-market-deficit-2026-says-icsg-2025-10-08/
